The countdown for TikTok in the United States is nearing its conclusion.
A law mandating TikTok to secure a new owner outside of China or face a prohibition is set to take effect on Sunday, and there are few signs that the company will successfully execute a sale prior to this deadline.
Consequently, 170 million Americans may lose access to a platform that serves as a source of entertainment, news, and community engagement, as well as a venue for business operations. TikTok has emerged as the first new platform in years to present a significant competitive challenge to established American social media giants such as Instagram and YouTube.
On Friday, the Supreme Court affirmed the law, bringing the potential ban closer to reality. The company has indicated that, without prompt action from the Biden administration, it will cease operations on Sunday.
Despite the impending deadline being less than two full days away, numerous uncertainties remain regarding the forthcoming developments.
Will the outgoing Biden administration offer any guidance? Current indications suggest this is unlikely.
Will the incoming Trump administration take action? Based on the anticipated guest list for his inauguration, it seems probable that he will attempt to intervene.
Here is what is known — and what remains uncertain — as the deadline for the ban approaches.
Will my app be discontinued?
On Friday evening, TikTok intensified its stance, indicating that it would cease operations on Sunday night unless it received explicit "clarity and assurance."
A statement released late Friday noted, "The declarations made today by both the Biden Administration and the Department of Justice have not provided the essential clarity and assurance to the service providers crucial for maintaining TikTok's accessibility to over 170 million Americans."
The statement further warned, "If the Biden Administration does not promptly issue a definitive assurance to the key service providers regarding non-enforcement, TikTok will regrettably be compelled to cease operations on January 19."
Experts had anticipated that the app would be removed from the Apple and Google app stores on Sunday, as these platforms could incur penalties under the law for continuing to host TikTok beyond the deadline. Consequently, individuals who do not already have the app installed on their devices would be unable to download it, while current users could still access it without security updates until it eventually becomes nonfunctional or experiences significant issues.
A Biden administration official informed CNN on Thursday that the outgoing president intends to leave the enforcement of the ban to Trump. “Our stance has been unequivocal: TikTok should continue to function under American ownership. Considering the timing of the ban's implementation, coinciding with a holiday weekend just prior to the inauguration, it will be the responsibility of the incoming administration to carry it out,” the official stated.
This implies that, should Trump assume office the day following the ban's enforcement, there may be no directive for app stores to remove the application on Sunday, potentially allowing them to make independent decisions regarding compliance.
Consequently, users should prepare themselves both mentally and emotionally for the possibility of losing access to the app starting Sunday, unless they opt to utilize a VPN to circumvent the ban.
Reasons for the TikTok Ban
The primary accusation against TikTok is that the platform presents a potential national security threat. U.S. officials have expressed concerns that the Chinese government could exert pressure on TikTok or its parent company, ByteDance, to surrender the personal data of its American users, which could subsequently be exploited for Chinese intelligence activities or the dissemination of Chinese-backed misinformation.
To date, there is no evidence that such actions have occurred. Nevertheless, policymakers and security analysts have indicated that China's national security laws create a potential risk—highlighting a concern that aligns with a broader anti-China narrative encompassing trade, human rights, and authoritarianism.
These apprehensions were intensified following a 2022 report indicating that China-based employees had repeatedly accessed U.S. user data. TikTok has contested the findings of this report. In recent years, the company asserts that it has implemented changes in its management of U.S. user data, including storing it on servers located in the United States and owned by the Silicon Valley tech firm Oracle.
In April, President Joe Biden enacted legislation mandating that the platform either be sold to a new, non-Chinese owner or face a ban in the United States.
The initiative to prohibit TikTok garnered substantial backing from both political parties, as evidenced by the US House of Representatives' approval of the legislation through a bipartisan vote of 360-58. Republican leaders in the House linked the TikTok ban to funding for military assistance to Ukraine and missile defense for Israel, thereby compelling Senate members to evaluate the entire proposal in a single comprehensive vote.
Subsequently, the bill was expedited through the Senate, where it was passed in less than a week. In February 2023, the Biden administration mandated that all employees within the executive branch uninstall TikTok from their devices within a 30-day timeframe.
What is Trump’s stance now?
Despite the fact that the concept of banning TikTok originated during Trump's initial term in office, he has since reversed his position, expressing a desire to preserve the application.
The complicating factor is that the ban is scheduled to take effect one day prior to Trump's inauguration.
Trump has requested the Supreme Court to temporarily halt the enforcement of the ban, allowing him time as president to negotiate a sale of TikTok. Sources familiar with his intentions informed CNN on Wednesday that he is contemplating whether to postpone the ban to maintain American access to the platform while he pursues a deal.
TikTok's CEO, Shou Chew, is expected to be present at the inauguration alongside other prominent technology executives, which may indicate the seriousness with which the incoming president is approaching the preservation of the app.
Additionally, some members of Congress are now suggesting that TikTok may require additional time to secure a buyer, potentially providing Trump with the backing needed to delay the ban. The law permits the president to extend the ban by 90 days, but this extension necessitates proof that the parties involved in the purchase are making substantial progress, including binding legal agreements. However, TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, has not publicly changed its position that the app is not for sale.
Is a sale still feasible?
Even if the TikTok ban is implemented, a sale of the app to a non-Chinese entity could restore access for users in the United States.
A consortium led by billionaire entrepreneur and former owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Frank McCourt, along with renowned investor Kevin O’Leary from "Shark Tank," submitted a formal proposal to acquire TikTok from the China-based ByteDance earlier this month. This group aims to purchase TikTok's U.S. assets, although they would not acquire the app's highly valued algorithm, which China has indicated will not be permitted for sale. They plan to reconstruct the platform with what they claim would be a more transparent feed and enhanced user control over their data.
Reports suggest that Chinese officials have also considered the possibility of selling TikTok to Elon Musk, the owner of X, whom they might view as a favorable American owner. Neither Musk nor ByteDance has commented on these reports, while TikTok has dismissed them as "pure fiction."
McCourt informed CNN on Thursday that while the bankers representing ByteDance have acknowledged receipt of his group's proposal, he anticipates that the company is “waiting to hear what the Supreme Court does” before engaging in any serious discussions regarding the acquisition. “However, they have not dismissed us outright,” he remarked, expressing hope for a meaningful dialogue following the court's decision.
However, it is important to note that even if TikTok is sold and remains accessible to American users, it will fundamentally differ from its current version. Given that China is likely to prohibit the sale of the algorithm alongside TikTok’s US assets, the new owner will face the challenging task of reconstructing the app’s “For You” feed. Many technology companies have invested significant time attempting to replicate TikTok’s algorithm, yet none have succeeded fully.
Creating a version of TikTok exclusively for American users may also necessitate that users in other countries download a separate application to access content from US users.
In summary, until Sunday—and likely continuing into the following week—TikTok users may find themselves with more uncertainties than clarifications regarding the app's future.
What is TikTok's valuation?
According to Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, TikTok’s US assets, excluding the algorithm, are estimated to be valued between $40 billion and $50 billion.
However, since the algorithm is likely a significant component of TikTok’s overall worth, accurately determining a monetary value for the company proves challenging.
McCourt’s group has not disclosed the specifics of their offer publicly, although the billionaire has previously suggested that he values the assets at approximately $20 billion.
“We will refrain from publicly sharing the financial specifics of our offer until ByteDance is in a position to review our proposal,” the group stated in an official announcement.
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