Ranking the top contenders at the 2025 Australian Open
It has been approximately four months since Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka secured their US Open titles with relative ease. Sinner lost only two out of 23 sets, while Sabalenka conceded just one out of 15, both achieving their second Grand Slam titles of 2024 and subsequently attaining year-end No. 1 rankings.
Following a somewhat tumultuous fall and winter, marked by injuries and ongoing concerns regarding congested tour schedules, as well as the repercussions of several high-profile positive drug tests in both the men's and women's circuits, the first Grand Slam of 2025 is upon us. It is hardly surprising to note that Sinner and Sabalenka are once again the frontrunners. However, a great deal can unfold over the course of two weeks. Let us examine the key players for the 2025 Australian Open, including the favorites, secondary contenders, underdogs, and the most anticipated narratives for the opening week.
The Favorites
1 Jannik Sinner
ESPN BET odds: +130 | Tennis Abstract odds: 65.9%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Alex De Minaur (quarterfinals)
In spite of the overshadowing issue of a no-fault drug test, which highlighted the opaque nature of tennis' drug-testing protocols, Sinner had a remarkable 2024 season. He not only secured victories in both hard-court Grand Slam tournaments but also triumphed at the year-end ATP finals, claimed three Masters 1000 titles, and led Italy to a Davis Cup championship. His record against Carlos Alcaraz stood at 0-3, while he achieved an impressive 73-3 against all other competitors. Sinner's serve has become the most formidable on the tour, with a service point win rate of 71.1% in 2024, the highest among the ATP's top 50 players, complemented by a top-five return game.
Concerns regarding his fitness have largely dissipated in 2024, revealing a player with the most comprehensive and potent skill set in the sport. Tennis Abstract assigns him a 66% probability of winning the title, a remarkably high figure given the competitive nature of the 128-player field.
2 Aryna Sabalenka
ESPN BET odds: +220 | Tennis Abstract odds: 23.6%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 5 Zheng Qinwen (quarterfinals)
When evaluating Sabalenka's 2024 season, it is only in comparison to Sinner's that it appears less impressive. The 26-year-old has secured victories in both hard-court Grand Slam tournaments, achieving finals in four consecutive hard-court Slams and claiming three titles. Additionally, she has reached the finals of four 1000-level events, winning two of them. Although she experienced a shoulder injury that sidelined her for part of the summer, including Wimbledon, and faced a few unexpected defeats upon her return, she regained her form in time for the US Open, where she won 22 out of 23 matches at one point.
Sabalenka is pursuing her third consecutive Australian Open title, although her draw presents significant challenges. She may encounter the promising teenager Mirra Andreeva, who dealt her the only Grand Slam loss of the season at the French Open, in the fourth round. In the quarterfinals, she could face last year's Australian Open finalist, Zheng, and in the semifinals, she might meet Coco Gauff, the last player to defeat her in a hard-court Grand Slam. Despite these tough matchups, she is expected to be the favorite in each contest.
3 Carlos Alcaraz
ESPN BET odds: +330 | Tennis Abstract odds: 6.7%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Novak Djokovic or No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (quarterfinals)
Is it possible to have a disappointing season with two Grand Slam titles? At the age of 21, Alcaraz remained undefeated against Sinner and secured his inaugural French Open title along with a second Wimbledon championship in 2024. This achievement brought his total to four Grand Slam titles, equaling the combined total of Novak Djokovic (1), Rafael Nadal (3), and Roger Federer (0) at the same age. However, Alcaraz faced challenges with inconsistency, suffering losses in three out of five matches during a stretch in January and February, as well as three out of four matches in the summer, which included an Olympic defeat to Djokovic and an unexpected second-round exit against Botic Van De Zandschulp at the US Open. He also lost three out of four matches in the fall.
During the brief offseason in tennis, Alcaraz opted for a heavier racket, and it remains to be seen whether the sporadic dry spells of 2024 were merely a temporary issue or an inherent aspect of his bold and confidence-driven playing style.
4 Iga Swiatek
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 21.2%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 8 Emma Navarro or No. 9 Daria Kasatkina (quarterfinals)
The year 2024 has been less than stellar for Iga Swiatek, despite her achievements. The 23-year-old secured her fourth French Open title, claimed victory in four 1000-level tournaments, earned a bronze medal at the Olympics, and concluded the season with a record of 64 wins and 9 losses, finishing ranked No. 2. In response to what she perceived as a disappointing year, Swiatek made significant changes to her coaching staff, enlisting the experienced Wim Fissette.
Following her quarterfinal exit against Jessica Pegula at the US Open and a brief suspension related to a doping issue, Swiatek has recorded a 9-2 match record, with both losses coming at the hands of Coco Gauff. Although she has not advanced to the semifinals of a hard-court Grand Slam since 2022, her defeats continue to surprise the tennis community.
5 Coco Gauff
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 17.5%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 7 Jessica Pegula (quarterfinals)
Following her defeat to Emma Navarro in the round of 16 at the US Open—marking her second loss to Navarro in as many Grand Slam tournaments—Gauff, who is only 20 years old, has accelerated her performance significantly. Over the past four months, she has achieved an impressive record of 18 wins and 2 losses, including a 3-2 record against top-five players. Known for her speed and tenacity, Gauff has established herself as one of the more resilient competitors on the tour; notably, she has not lost to any player ranked outside the top 50 since her defeat to Sofia Kenin, her first-round opponent this week, at Wimbledon in 2023. Furthermore, she is now consistently triumphing over top-ranked players as well.
While Navarro is positioned on the opposite side of the draw, Gauff's path remains challenging: she may encounter either two-time US Open semifinalist Karolina Muchova or four-time hard-court Grand Slam champion Naomi Osaka in the fourth round, followed by a potential matchup against US Open finalist Pegula in the quarterfinals and Sabalenka in the semifinals.
6 Novak Djokovic
ESPN BET odds: +450 | Tennis Abstract odds: 13.0%
First potential top-10 opponent: No. 10 Grigor Dimitrov (fourth round)
At 37 years of age, Djokovic is experiencing what may be attributed to either age, motivation, or a combination of both, as he concludes his most challenging tour season since 2006. Despite this difficult year, he did secure an Olympic gold medal—an accolade that had previously eluded him—and reached the Wimbledon finals shortly after sustaining a torn meniscus at the French Open. Nevertheless, his record for 2024 stands at 37 wins and 9 losses, with a disappointing 2-4 record against ATP top-10 players. He lost five out of six sets to Jannik Sinner and faced a significant defeat against Carlos Alcaraz in the Wimbledon final.
In a positive development, Djokovic has welcomed the recently retired Andy Murray to his coaching staff, and it would not be surprising if he were to capture a 25th Grand Slam title. However, it is equally plausible that his Olympic victory may mark the conclusion of his major title achievements.
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